| Variable element | Method | Constraint test | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| API usage Q1 | Expected value | Within cap | $220,000 |
| API usage Q2 peak | Most likely | Cap binding | $310K → $275K |
| Volume discount tier | Probability-weighted | High uncertainty | -$45,000 |
| Performance bonus | Most likely | Reasonable certainty | $25,000 |
| Service credit (SLA) | Expected value | 99.5% uptime threshold | -$8,000 |
| Q3 reassessment | Reassessed | Actuals tracking lower | $950K → $850K |
| FY catch-up cumulative | Cumulative | Prior-period adj | -$100,000 |
| Constrained transaction price | Expected $1.2M · Constrained to $850K · ASC 606-10-32-11 applied | $850,000 | |